Top backers of the incoming administration have been debating the merits of the H-1B visa program, ... [+]
The immigration policy debate happening between some of President-elect Donald Trump’s most prominent supporters, which played out on X last week, is nothing new. The players are different this time but the dynamics of the debate are the same as previous spats. In this instance, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and other Trump supporters tied to the tech industry are arguing that not only are high-skilled guest workers good for the economy, but that the U.S. needs more of them. In recent days, Musk and others have rhetorically sparred with fellow Trump supporters of a more nativist bent who believe that current levels of even legal immigration are too high.
Critics of the H-1B visa program for high-skilled workers argue that companies in tech, financial services, and other industries are gaming the program in order to hire lower wage workers from abroad, but evidence suggests that such claims are inconsistent with reality. Omid Bagheri, an economist at Kent State University, published a 2021 analysis finding that “in computer and mathematical sciences, temporary work visa holders on average make about 14% more than their U.S.-born counterparts.”
If President-elect Trump wants to shake up the immigration debate while taking action to rectify the labor shortages plaguing many employers and entire industries, he could grant a federal waiver authorizing the launch of the first state-run guest worker program. Trump will have that option as soon as he is sworn in. That’s because Utah legislators and then-Governor Gary Herbert (R) enacted legislation in 2011 to create a state-run guest worker program. It’s just waiting on a White House waiver in order to become operational.
Federalism Could Be Key To Building Support For More Legal Immigration
Though the Utah guest worker program approved by state lawmakers nearly 14 years has not received a federal waiver, it has until 2027 to do so. President-elect Trump could, should he so choose, green light Utah’s state-run visa program on January 20 and encourage other states to submit proposals for federal approval to launch their own guest worker programs.
Over the past decade, nearly a dozen state legislatures have debated proposals to create state-run guest worker programs. Among the states where lawmakers have considered legislation to launch their own visa program — which includes California, Colorado, Texas, and Kansas — only Utah’s was enacted. Opponents of those proposals often referenced the need for federal approval.
President-elect Trump expressed support for the H-1B program this week, telling the New York Post’s Jon Levine that he hires many H-1B workers for his properties. Trump, who has demonstrated an appreciation for deferring other policy decisions to the states, can already find congressional support for permitting state-run visa programs. Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) and Representative John Curtis (R-Utah) have introduced bills in recent years to authorize state-run visa programs.
“Nationwide one-size-fits-all migration laws aren’t working. States need more workers to fill particular economic niches that the federal government ignores,” the Cato Institute noted about Rep. Curtis’s bill, which was introduced in 2019. “Curtis’ bill lets states try their hand at regulating economic visas under federal supervision. Federalism currently allows states to experiment with education, welfare and drug policies with great success. It’s time to let them experiment with legal migration too.”
The push by business leaders for more legal immigration is driven not by a disdain for U.S.-born workers, but a real labor shortage. A 2023 report by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) projected that, based on data from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. working age population will shrink by six million workers between 2022 and 2040.
“The working-age U.S. population has peaked absent additional immigration,” wrote Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida who authored the NFAP report. “New international migrants are the only potential source of growth in the U.S. working-age population over the remainder of the next two decades.”
“Over the past five years, the working-age population increased by less than 1%,” Tim Carney, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and Washington Examiner senior columnist, wrote in 2023 about the coming worker shortage. “That’s easily the lowest period on record. The previous two periods (2008-2013 and 2013-2015) saw increases of 2.1% and 2.9%. Before that, the working-age population always increased by more than 5% every half-decade.”
Annual Change in Working-Age Population 1979-2023 (Source: Timothy P. Carney, Federal Reserve Bank ... [+]
It’s not just large companies in the tech and financial services sectors who are facing labor shortages. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which represents U.S. small businesses, finds that they too are also having trouble filling positions.
A 2023 NFIB survey found 40% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners had openings they couldn’t fill, while 33% have unfilled positions for high-skilled workers, and 14% are trying to fill openings for unskilled labor. “There are not enough workers to maintain current operations much less chase new opportunities,” NFIB says.
In addition to helping address labor shortages for both high-skill and unskilled jobs, federal authorization of state-run visa programs would also help states and regions address unique labor needs. Under Representative Curtis’s bill, the Cato Institute notes that “states could create visas that don’t exist under the federal system. California might create a state visa for high-tech entrepreneurs, Wisconsin would create one for dairy workers, and Utah could attract tourism entrepreneurs. Texas may want oil-rig workers and Michigan could attract real-estate developers for Detroit.”
Despite President-elect Trump’s supportive remarks, it’s clear many of his supporters do not share his appreciation of the H-1B visa program. Perhaps state-run visa programs can engender greater consensus, uniting GOP factions that have been in conflict, as well as Democrats.
